**Momentum Shifts: GOP Poised for House Retention in 2026 Midterms**
In a surprising turn of events, recent data suggests that Republicans are solidifying their chances of maintaining control over the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, revealed during a segment on “CNN News Central” that the odds for Republicans retaining the House have shot up dramatically.
According to the Kalshi prediction market, the GOP’s odds have risen from a mere 17% in the spring to an impressive 37% now.
This increase occurs as Democratic forecasts falter, dropping from an 83% chance of control back in April to just 63% today.
Enten noted that the current political landscape is crucial to understanding this shift, drawing comparisons to the lead-up to the 2018 midterms when the Democratic Party was clearly ahead in the polls.
Contrary to the past cycle, where Democrats had maintained a clear advantage, recent polling indicates that their momentum is stalling.
This has created a more competitive playing field as Republicans capitalize on favorable conditions, including a projected gain of at least seven House seats.
Critical issues are also tipping the scales in favor of the GOP. Polling suggests that voters prefer Republican candidates on key topics such as the economy—where Republicans lead by 7 points—immigration, and crime, with margins of 13 and 22 points, respectively.
As Democrats grapple with declining favorability on these pivotal issues, it’s evident that the landscape is changing.
The analysis indicates that while Democrats still hold a slight edge in national indicators, the lack of a clear surge similar to the one seen before the 2018 midterms could be detrimental to their prospects.
As we look ahead, the GOP's resurgence in forecasted odds coupled with their strong positioning on critical issues signals a potential turning point.
With the election cycle heating up, Republicans stand prepared to leverage these gains as they head into what could be a crucial contest for control of the House.
Sources:
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