Trump Surges Ahead of Biden in 2024 Race: Polls
Submitted by MAGA Student
Posted 2 days ago
Former President Donald Trump emerges as the top contender against President Joe Biden in the 2024 election, according to recent polls.
The polling data, which compares the national popular vote between Biden and Trump, indicates a significant shift in the political landscape since the 2020 election. Trump, who was defeated by Biden in 2020, has been steadily gaining support among voters.
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections was based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), which compared actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
According to the polls, Trump is currently leading Biden by a significant margin. However, it is important to note that the polls can be adjusted to account for any perceived bias. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, the margin can be reduced by 2 points by sliding the "unskewer" to the left.
Despite the strong polling numbers for Trump, there is still one potential challenger who could pose a threat to his chances of reclaiming the presidency: Michelle Obama. According to a recent poll by Ipsos, Obama is the only candidate who currently bests Trump as an alternative to Biden in 2024. However, it remains to be seen whether Obama will actually enter the race.
As the 2024 election approaches, it will be interesting to see how the polls continue to shift and whether Trump will be able to maintain his lead over Biden. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is certain: the 2024 election is shaping up to be a closely contested race.
Sources:
polymarket.com
elections2024.thehill.com
ipsos.com
The polling data, which compares the national popular vote between Biden and Trump, indicates a significant shift in the political landscape since the 2020 election. Trump, who was defeated by Biden in 2020, has been steadily gaining support among voters.
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections was based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), which compared actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
According to the polls, Trump is currently leading Biden by a significant margin. However, it is important to note that the polls can be adjusted to account for any perceived bias. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, the margin can be reduced by 2 points by sliding the "unskewer" to the left.
Despite the strong polling numbers for Trump, there is still one potential challenger who could pose a threat to his chances of reclaiming the presidency: Michelle Obama. According to a recent poll by Ipsos, Obama is the only candidate who currently bests Trump as an alternative to Biden in 2024. However, it remains to be seen whether Obama will actually enter the race.
As the 2024 election approaches, it will be interesting to see how the polls continue to shift and whether Trump will be able to maintain his lead over Biden. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is certain: the 2024 election is shaping up to be a closely contested race.
Sources:
polymarket.com
elections2024.thehill.com
ipsos.com
