Black Voters Shift Towards Trump in Swing States
Submitted by MAGA Student
Posted 9 days ago
A recent Suffolk poll reveals a significant shift in black voters' support towards Donald Trump in two major swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, the incumbent President Joe Biden pulls in just 55 percent of the total black vote, with Donald Trump taking 15 percent. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West also haul in 15 percent. In Pennsylvania, Biden takes 56 percent of the black vote, with Trump at 11 percent, and Kennedy Jr. and West at 7 and 8 percent respectively.
While Biden's numbers are likely to rise as undecided voters make their decisions, the shift in support towards Trump is newsworthy. In Michigan, black voters have moved towards Trump by six points compared to 2020. In Pennsylvania, Trump's support has increased from eight percent to 11 percent.
The poll also reveals that Biden's policies and his age and mental acuity are driving the shift in support. A higher percentage of black voters disagreed with the idea that Trump was being unfairly targeted than support Biden. The GOP, however, should not count on this being a decisive issue.
There is one caveat to this poll, though, and that's low-propensity voters. While the poll shows 76 percent of black respondents voted for Biden in 2020, exit polls in 2020 show that the actual number was 92 percent. This means that a significant part of Biden's decline is being driven by new voters who didn't show up the last go around. If these voters don't show up this time, the poll results could become irrelevant.
Trump's challenge going forward will be to ensure that low-propensity voters turn out to vote. Leading the polls is great, but turnout is key. If the low-propensity voters who are making up the difference don't show up, none of it will matter. Given it's a presidential year, turnout is expected to be high, and the evidence says that should favor Trump. If this were a mid-term, the situation would be far more tenuous.
Sources:
notthebee.com
redstate.com
americanthinker.com
In Michigan, the incumbent President Joe Biden pulls in just 55 percent of the total black vote, with Donald Trump taking 15 percent. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West also haul in 15 percent. In Pennsylvania, Biden takes 56 percent of the black vote, with Trump at 11 percent, and Kennedy Jr. and West at 7 and 8 percent respectively.
While Biden's numbers are likely to rise as undecided voters make their decisions, the shift in support towards Trump is newsworthy. In Michigan, black voters have moved towards Trump by six points compared to 2020. In Pennsylvania, Trump's support has increased from eight percent to 11 percent.
The poll also reveals that Biden's policies and his age and mental acuity are driving the shift in support. A higher percentage of black voters disagreed with the idea that Trump was being unfairly targeted than support Biden. The GOP, however, should not count on this being a decisive issue.
There is one caveat to this poll, though, and that's low-propensity voters. While the poll shows 76 percent of black respondents voted for Biden in 2020, exit polls in 2020 show that the actual number was 92 percent. This means that a significant part of Biden's decline is being driven by new voters who didn't show up the last go around. If these voters don't show up this time, the poll results could become irrelevant.
Trump's challenge going forward will be to ensure that low-propensity voters turn out to vote. Leading the polls is great, but turnout is key. If the low-propensity voters who are making up the difference don't show up, none of it will matter. Given it's a presidential year, turnout is expected to be high, and the evidence says that should favor Trump. If this were a mid-term, the situation would be far more tenuous.
Sources:
notthebee.com
redstate.com
americanthinker.com
