Fox News Poll: Trump has edge over Biden in potential 2024 rematch


With eight months until Election Day, former President Trump carries voters who say either the economy or immigration is their priority voting issue, and this edge on the top two issues gives the Republican frontrunner a 2-point advantage over current President Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup. The poll also shows Nikki Haley, Trump’s last-standing Republican primary challenger, with an 8-point lead over Biden.

Additionally, third-party candidates continue to draw from each major party candidate in possible 5-way ballots.

That’s according to the latest Fox News Poll released Sunday.

In a potential rematch, the survey finds Trump receives 49% support while Biden gets 47%.  That’s pretty much where it’s been since September.  Trump’s advantage is within the margin of sampling error.

Biden was ahead in August by 3 points, the first time the 2024 matchup was tested (44% Biden, 41% Trump), and by one point in October (49%-48%) – both times within the margin of error.

Trump’s advantage comes from record or near-record support among key Democratic groups, while maintaining strong support among his own constituencies.

For instance, 28% of Black voters support Trump in the head-to-head against Biden, 7 times as many as supported him four years ago (4% in February 2020).  In addition, Trump has significant support among voters under age 30 (51%) and Democrats (8%), with near-record support among Hispanics (48%) and suburban women (43%).

Some of Trump’s strongest groups are White evangelical Christians (68%), White men without a college degree (64%), and rural voters (60%), while for Biden it’s Black voters (66%), urban voters (59%), and college graduates (57%).

Democrats (90% Biden) and Republicans (92% Trump) don’t stray far from their homebase, while independents go for Biden by 8 points (within the margin of error).

"The focus for many will be on Trump's advantage, but his support hasn't wavered much since late fall," says Republican Daron Shaw who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The more interesting question is whether Biden can resurrect his standing among African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters, and boost his edge with independents."

Haley fares better than Trump against Biden, receiving 50% to Biden’s 42% for an 8-point lead. That’s outside the margin of error.  Like Trump, the only time Biden has bested Haley was in August 2023 (42% Biden, 36% Haley).

Haley’s standing against Biden is better than Trump’s among independents, college graduates, suburban women, and Democrats. Among independents, she’s ahead of Biden by 15 points compared to Biden’s 8-point advantage against Trump.

In a potential 5-way race, Trump (41%) remains ahead of Biden (38%), with both losing support to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (13%), Cornel West (3%), and Jill Stein (2%).

The 5-way is less favorable for Haley, as she loses her lead to Biden and barely edges out Kennedy: 35% Biden, 28% Haley, 24% Kennedy, 5% West, and 2% Stein.

Haley’s woes come from a split among Trump supporters and MAGA Republicans.  Only 45% of Trump supporters back Haley, while 38% back Kennedy. It’s a similar story among MAGA supporters, as 49% of them go for Haley and 37% for Kennedy.

Kennedy’s strong showing in the ballot with Biden and Haley is due in part to independents, as he gets 29% of them against Biden (25%) and Trump (24%) and 34% against Biden (20%) and Haley (22%).

It doesn’t help Haley that her favorable ratings are underwater by 14 points (37% favorable, 51% unfavorable).

A large part of Biden’s success in 2020 was that he had a considerable favorability advantage over Trump, but that has disappeared. His favorable rating went from being net positive by 4 points in February 2020 to net negative by 18 points today.  But Trump’s ratings have only shifted a few points, from -11 to -14 today.

"In an election year where the two major party candidates are both viewed so negatively, RFK Jr. has the potential to tip the scale, but it’s unclear in which direction," says Anderson.

When voters are asked what issue will be most important when deciding their vote, almost 4 in 10 say the economy (37%). Also receiving double-digits are two other hot topics: immigration (21%) and abortion (10%).  All others get single digits: health care (7%), election integrity (5%), climate change, crime, foreign policy, and guns receive 4% apiece.

Economy voters back Trump by a 14-point margin.  Among abortion voters, Biden beats Trump handily (+56 points), while immigration voters resoundingly go for Trump (+70).... (Read more)

Submitted 48 days ago

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