Worry in Washington: US Weapons to Ukraine Drains Arsenal

There is growing worry in Washington that endless weapons support to Ukraine is hurting the U. S.’s ability to deter China from invading Taiwan and win if a conflict with China did break out.

A recently-published think-tank analysis warned that as it currently stands, the U. S. would run out of long-range, precision-guided munitions in a war with China over Taiwan in less than a week — a problem that author Seth Jones called one of “empty bins.”

“The United States has been slow to replenish its arsenal, and the DoD has only placed on contract a fraction of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine,” Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote, adding:

Effective deterrence hinges, in part, on having sufficient stockpiles of munitions and other weapons systems. These challenges are not new. What is different now, however, is that the United States is directly aiding Ukraine in an industrial-style conventional war with Russia — the largest land war in Europe since World War II — and tensions are rising between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific.

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder pushed back on the report, telling reporters, “I am confident that, regardless of what the situation is worldwide, as we’ve done for a very long time, the United States military will be able to be prepared to support whatever requirements we’re asked to support.”

However, defense experts and members of Congress are expressing increasing concern.

Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official in the Trump administration, tweeted recently: “Despite protestations to the contrary, it’s increasingly clear that Ukraine is indeed a distraction from our stated priority: Asia, China, and Taiwan. We can admit it and try to adapt. Or we can deny it and pay the price later.”

Despite protestations to the contrary, it's increasingly clear that Ukraine is indeed a distraction from our stated priority: Asia, China, and Taiwan. We can admit it and try to adapt. Or we can deny it and pay the price later. I advise the former. 1/https://t.co/oKTxMTZlHR

He added, “It’s especially important to reckon with reality because 1) the war in Ukraine doesn’t look like it’s going to end anytime soon and 2) the military balance over Taiwan is deteriorating.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, tweeted after the Biden administration announced it was sending tanks to Ukraine: “Another Forever War — while China runs rampant, undeterred.”

We have sent so much of our munitions down, so much of our military-grade equipment down, if we have to fight a war against China – which I think is far more likely and, frankly, it’s a far more dangerous opponent — that’s what worries me, is that the focus on Russia comes at the expense of China.

“Unfortunately, we cannot fight two enemies at once, and whether we fight the Chinese — God forbid, directly, or indirectly – down the road over the next 20 or 30 years, we need to focus where the real problem is. In my view that’s China,” Vance said.

The @DailyMail: Republican Sen. @JDVance1 claims sending military aid to Ukraine is making the US more vulnerable against CHINAhttps://t.co/9CqFXKtNJ8

Although current U. S. policy on Taiwan calls for maintaining “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily to defend it if China does invade, Biden has said repeatedly that America would commit troops if China did so.

At the same time, China has become increasingly aggressive its territorial claims over Taiwan, a democratic island nation off the coast of China founded by Chinese nationalists who fled the mainland after losing a civil war with Chinese Communists.

NBC News reported Friday that Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of Air Mobility Command (AMC), wrote a memo that predicted that U. S. forces would be at war with China in 2025. He predicted that the U.S. and Taiwan would both be distracted by presidential elections in both countries, giving Chinese President Xi Jinping an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

“My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025,” he said.

Mike Pompeo, former secretary of state and Central Intelligence Agency director, agreed “our military should get ready.”

“I don’t know if 2024, 2025 is the moment, but we should be doing the hard work, getting our military space systems, our cyber systems, all of those lined up, and then working our tails off to continue to build on” working with allies and partners in the region to deter China from invading Taiwan,” he said.

“It’s possible to do — I pray that President Biden and his team are up to that task, and they are serious about it. I have seen some evidence that they’re working on it, but not not remotely fast enough, or seriously enough,” he said.... (Read more)

Tweets mentioned:

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1618952065409245185

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1618331388796899328

https://twitter.com/SenVancePress/status/1618676260657569793

https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1528158555186118656

https://twitter.com/dandcaldwell/status/1618961949055934464

https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1576724371183378433

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