Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead

President Donald Trump was one of those GOP voters going to the polls, kicking off Florida’s statewide in-person early voting period Saturday by casting his ballot in West Palm Beach and livestreaming an event to urge supporters to show up and catch Democrats. Further south, in Miami, former President Barack Obama held a rally for his former vice president, Joe Biden, at Florida International University.

The split-screen schedule of the two presidents, each of whom carried Florida with different voter coalitions, shed light on the different strategies of the two campaigns in Trump’s must-win state, with the president trying to supersize older and white voter turnout and Obama seeking to boost young Black and Latino voting.

“One of the biggest shortcomings in 2016 was Hillary Clinton was unable to assemble the Obama coalition, especially among younger Black voters and especially among younger Black men. The Biden campaign has accurately identified that that’s a challenge they need to overcome this time,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart.

“So Obama [going] there is probably one of the items on the checklist and why the Obama visit makes sense.”

According to TargetSmart’s analysis, Black voters aged 18 to 29 have cast 15.8 percent of the total ballots so far in Florida. That’s half a percentage point down from the same period in 2016. Bonier pointed out that the total vote of that group, along with nearly all other demographics in the state, is up in raw votes and that “it’s not as if the numbers are bad. There’s opportunity.”

Bonier pointed out that white voters without a college degree, Trump’s most loyal supporters, have a smaller share of the vote so far when compared to 10 days before the election in 2016.

But Republicans are expecting those white voters to show now that in-person early voting has started in every county. As for young Black voter turnout, it’s problematic for Biden that he’s not even matching Clinton’s 2016 totals, which still weren't enough for her, said Florida’s top Republican data analyst, Ryan Tyson.

“If they’re excited about matching Clinton turnout, I say, ‘please do,’” Tyson said. “The only turnout that can defeat Trump soundly is an Obama coalition turnout, a turnout of the ascendant electorate of young voters, especially African American and Latino. Biden isn’t getting that. That’s why they’re bringing Obama to Miami. It’s appropriate to call it a rescue mission by Obama.”

Overall, Black voter and Hispanic voter turnout as a share of the early and absentee vote is higher than at this stage in 2016. But that’s mainly due to voting by older, high-propensity voters, who were expected to turn out any way, Tyson said. Democrats have led the way in turning out far more of these reliable voters than Republicans, who have 401,000 more high-propensity voters itching to cast ballots in person.

Republicans’ advantage in high-propensity voters in 2016 helped Trump overcome a deficit of nearly 247,000 votes on Election Day morning and beat Hillary Clinton by less than 113,000 votes.

Democrats are turning out more low-propensity voters and newly registered voters than Republicans. But as shares of their party’s votes, the proportions are roughly the same as 2016, according to an analysis by Tyson, whose most recent 1,000-sample Florida poll has Trump with a 2-point lead that’s well within the survey’s error margin of 3.1 points. Many recent public polls have Biden marginally leading.

“All signs point to another 1-to-2 percent Florida election,” Tyson said, noting that more younger voters are turning out, but older voters ... (Read more)

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