...That model is likely highly flawed, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta argues.
...Professor Gupta lead a team of researchers at Oxford University in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.
..."The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a 'susceptibility-infected-recovered model' of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy," the Financial Times explains.
...While the notion of "Herd immunity" has been essentially dropped in U.K. policy making, "The Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months."
...The Oxford group is working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing on the general U.K. population later this week by using specialised "Neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity," Gupta explained.
Submitted 7 days ago